"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those rather than parlays. Some of you might not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it appears like. You bet Team A and IF it wins you then place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and if it wins you bet double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet the same amount on the next team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the initial game wins, he'll put the same amount on the second game though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you should have action on the next game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books will not allow you to fill in the second game later. You need to designate both teams once you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the second team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you need to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also function as same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
https://new88.studio/ occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 once the first team loses with no decrease in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it has the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone tells you that the best way to win would be to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you're the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux which means you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you pull out your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a good substitute for the parlay for anyone who is winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there is a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the fact that we make the next bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, when you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The actual possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines privately and total are to one another, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one out of the two. Each one of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that whenever, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
In comparison with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."