"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. Without a doubt Team A and when it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the first team, and when it wins without a doubt double on the second team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you would like to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can also be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the initial game wins, he will put the same amount on the next game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the next game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It should be noted, that when both games start at differing times, most books won't allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. In that case, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. In the event that you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also function as same as in the event that you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 once the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In thiên đường trò chơi , you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. However, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he could be not betting the second game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that next time someone tells you that the best way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by a winner with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux which means you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Needless to say you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a great substitute for the parlay when you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there is a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the point that we make the next bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig no matter how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will review the comparatively low total, and when the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have previously seen, if you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines privately and total are one to the other, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely have to win one from the two. Each one of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. That a BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."